Top ten emerging markets by mobile subscriber growth

An interesting article from Light Reading begins, “Developing countries now account for more than half of mobile subscriber growth worldwide, with the top 10 adding around 285 million new subscribers in 2006 alone.”

As this is an area where I’ve accumulated quite a bit of data, I thought I’d augment their table…

Country	2006 subscriber additions (millions)	Total subscribers Dec 2006 (millions)	Increase over Dec 2005	Teledensity (/100 pop.) Dec 2006	Population (millions) July 2006	Median age
India	73.6	149.5	97%	13.6	1,095.4	24.9
China	67.7	461.1	17%	35.1	1,314.0	32.7
Pakistan	28.9	48.3	147%	29.1	165.8	19.8
Russia	26.1	151.9	21%	106.3	142.9	38.4
Indonesia	23.0	65.0	38%	26.5	245.5	26.8
Ukraine	19.0	49.2	63%	105.4	46.7	39.2
Brazil	13.7	99.9	16%	53.1	188.1	28.2
Bangladesh	12.0	21.8	135%	14.8	147.4	22.2
Nigeria	11.4	30.0	38%	22.7	131.9	18.7
Vietnam	10.0	22.5	80%	26.7	84.4	25.9
US	23.0	216.7	14%	72.6	298.4	36.5
EU	52.9	486.8	12%	98.7	493.0	38.5

The first three columns are from Light Reading, at least for the 10 emerging markets.  Teledensity is computed from the population data (from the CIA World Factbook).  The US & EU numbers are from Yankee Group, unfortunately for the 12 months ending Q306, not Dec 06, as that’s what I have on my laptop as I write this.

Of course India and China are way ahead — not a total surprise given their populations — followed by the EU — not a surprise given it’s population.  But next is Pakistan(!) — 29 million new subscribers in a population of only 166 million — ahead of Russia, Indonesia and the US.  Given new mobile phones do more for the economic growth of emerging countries than practically any other investment, the rest of the world would do well to look at what’s gone on in Pakistan.

Bangladesh has been paying attention, albeit in fits and starts.  A 2005 tax on SIM cards reduced mobile subscriber growth rates, but after extensive protest, it was substantially reduced in August 2006.  Meanwhile other deregulation and fairly open market has attracted major foreign investments over the past few years.  There are now five mobile operators in Bangladesh with a sixth (Warid Telecom) due to launch service in the near future.

Vietnam’s another country that’s seen the light.  Since regulations were relaxed in 2005, mobile investment and mobile subscribers have soared.  Vietnam had four mobile operators for most of 2006 and is currently headed towards seven mobile operators.  Expect rampant subscriber growth for 2007!

 

Comments

[Alexandre]

Hi!!!
I'm from Brasil,
is very good you blog..

[bibi]

:)

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